The spring normality in the thermometers has lasted just two days. After a relief of just 48 hours, the heat returns this weekend. The new rise in temperatures begins this Friday, explicitly Rubén del Campo, spokesman for the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet), which on this day also highlights strong winds in the northeast and important maritime storms in the Cantabrian Sea, where some rains, as well as in the North plateau.
On Saturday it will only rain in the Cantabrian communities and in the Pyrenees, where it can snow for about 1,300 meters. The strong winds will continue in large areas of the north and east of the peninsula. Temperatures will drop in the northern third, where it will be a cool day with 12°/13° in Pamplona and Vitoria, but they will continue to rise in the rest of the country, with 23° in Barcelona, 25° in Madrid and the return of those over 30° to Córdoba and Seville.
On Sunday, one more day of stable weather, with just “four drops” in the Bay of Biscay and points in the Pyrenees, and the rise in temperatures will continue, with a warm day in the west of the peninsula and up to 32° in Seville and Badajoz. Next week, from April 17 to 23, “anticyclonic weather will predominate and it will be warmer than normal”, with temperature measurements, between maximum and minimum, between 3° and 6° above normal. for these dates. Thermometers alone will mark what will fail in the Mediterranean and Balearic Islands. Rainfall “will continue to be low throughout the country,” laments the Aemet announcer.
Against this background, the situation of long-term drought worsens. After the second hottest and driest March of the 21st century, the beginning of April has also been very dry, so much so that barely three liters per square meter of media have been collected until the 12th, 12% of what would be normal. Since January 1, the amount of accumulated rain has been just half the normal average, 101 liters, but in southern and eastern parts of the Peninsula not even a quarter of what is expected has fallen. Since the beginning of the hydrological year, on October 1, there are 355 liters, and 22% less.
In the first twelve days of April, only 3 l/m² have accumulated in Spain as a whole. A much lower than normal amount for this period. Until now, the driest April in the historical series is that of 1995, with 23 l/m² accumulated throughout the month. pic.twitter.com/jXloX1KqvJ
— AEMET (@AEMET_Esp) April 13, 2023
What affects the most is what happens closer. To not miss anything, subscribe.
The forecast is dire. “We do not expect a favorable weather situation for widespread and abundant rains in the next 10 days, since it will only rain in Galicia and in the Cantabrian and Pyrenees communities. Although some rain could fall in other areas of the northern half, it will generally be small amounts”, Rubén del Campo glimpses.
To begin with, next Monday and Tuesday the slightly cloudy skies will predominate in most of the country, although clouds of evolution will grow that can leave some showers in the afternoon in the northeast of the peninsula and the Balearic Islands, with a greater probability in the Catalan Pyrenees. Temperatures “cannot experience big changes”, although they will drop slightly on Tuesday. The early mornings will be somewhat cold, even with light frosts on the northern plateau and central páramos, but the atmosphere will be temperate in the middle of the day and somewhat warm in the southwest, with more than 30° in Badajoz, Córdoba and Seville.
As of Wednesday, the stable weather will most likely continue, again with daytime clouds that, in the northwest, could lead to a stormy shower. It could also rain from Friday in Galicia and the Cantabrian communities, without ruling out that these precipitations spread weakly and disperse to other points in the northern half. “All this accompanied by temperatures that will rise again, again with more than 30° in the Guadalquivir. A warm atmosphere in most of Spain”, reiterates Del Campo. In the Canary Islands, this weekend and on Monday there will be little cloudy skies and slightly lower temperatures. From Tuesday it is possible that the cloudiness will increase in the north of the most mountainous islands and there will be drizzles.
With uncertainty because there is still a long way to go, the last week of the month, from the 24th to the 30th, looks bad, since it could be dominated by a warmer environment than normal for the time, especially in the center and west of the Peninsula, where Average temperatures will continue to be between 3° and 6° above normal. During those days there is no clear trend in terms of rainfall.
In the long term, it seems to confirm that summer has eaten spring. The Copernicus forecast for the quarter between May and July indicates that warmer than normal weather in Spain will most likely continue. “There is between a 50 and 70% probability that this is the case, compared to a 10 to 20% that it is a colder than normal quarter,” advances Del Campo.
At the moment, it cannot be determined if it will rain because there is no clear sign. “We will have to wait a little longer to see if the rains arrive in May or if it is, in general, a drier quarter than normal,” says the expert with hope, to remember that “what usually happens in Spain after May is that rainfall is, as a general rule, scarce. “Strong storms can occur in some areas, even accompanied by hail, but widespread or persistent episodes that help alleviate the meteorological drought.” That is, either May or nothing.